Global Oil Prices Surge Amid US-Iran Tensions; Experts Predict Continued High Prices

International oil prices saw a significant increase on Monday, driven by mutual military strikes between the United States and Iran over the weekend. This escalation underscored the precariousness of existing agreements and heightened concerns about regional stability.

Brent crude futures rose 1.61% to $73.15 per barrel, while New York West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 2.2% to $70.75. Market sources indicate that technical teams from the US and Iran are expected to meet in Doha, Qatar, soon to discuss details of a temporary peace agreement. Despite the recent hostilities, negotiations are set to continue, making the Middle East situation a key focus for market observers.

Analysts note that while shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering, it is far from fully normalized. Energy consultancy Gelber & Associates reported that Persian Gulf crude exports have rebounded to about 75% of pre-conflict levels, signaling a recovery in regional supply capacity. However, experts like Bob Yawger of Mizuho Securities Energy Futures predict that prices could remain elevated because the volume of traffic has not yet fully returned to pre-war levels.

Yawger cited persistent threats of vessel attacks, ongoing mine risks in the strait's waters, and incomplete insurance coverage as factors limiting the speed of transport recovery. Adding to the complex situation, Saudi Aramco restarted crude loading operations at its Ras Tanura terminal, located west of the Strait of Hormuz, after a nearly four-month suspension. This move is seen as a crucial indicator of normalizing energy supply in the region. Separately, a helicopter belonging to Saudi Aramco crashed near the terminal on Sunday, killing 14 people, though the cause is under investigation and did not halt terminal operations.