Global order is breaking apart, German researchers warn as 'warlords' return to prominence

A stark warning has emerged from four leading German research institutes specializing in peace studies: the global order is rapidly fragmenting, characterized by a resurgence of "warlordism" and a significant decline in democratic standards worldwide. The annual report on peace, compiled by Bicc, IFSH, INEF, and PRIF, highlights a troubling trend where state behavior increasingly mirrors that of "warlords."

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Democracies are under pressure globally.

Conrad Schetter, an expert on conflicts, stated that democracies are under global pressure, not only decreasing in number but also in quality. This erosion is paralleled by a weakening of the international system based on norms. The report points to a profound crisis within the United Nations, exacerbated by great power rivalries that paralyze decision-making, particularly in the Security Council, and severe financial constraints.

Despite these challenges, the report emphasizes the UN's continued indispensability in the absence of viable alternatives. The researchers urge Germany to bolster cooperation with small and medium-sized states to support UN reform and ensure stable funding. They advocate for credible security guarantees, adherence to international law, careful use of sanctions, and the construction of robust state institutions as crucial steps toward consolidating peace.

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The period 2021–2024 was the most violent since the end of the Cold War.

The period from 2021 to 2024 is identified as the most violent since the end of the Cold War. With 61 armed conflicts documented in 36 states, the number of displaced persons globally surpassed 120 million by April 2025. The report cites the actions of the United States, Russia, and Israel, as well as regional interventions by Pakistan, Turkey, Ethiopia, and Gulf monarchies, as examples of governments increasingly operating under a "warlord" logic, disregarding international law to pursue their interests. Diminishing international aid further exacerbates instability in fragile states and hampers conflict prevention efforts.

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Numerous governments increasingly act according to the logic of 'warlords,' violating international law and using force to impose their interests.