Global temperatures may hit new records by 2031, UN warns

The world is likely to experience continued record-breaking global temperatures over the next five years, according to a warning from the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

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Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years.

The WMO's outlook indicates a high probability, 86%, that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. Furthermore, there is a significant 75% chance that the average temperature for the entire 2026-2030 period will exceed the critical 1.5°C threshold above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. This aligns with the goals set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming.

Natural climate phenomena like El Niño are expected to play a role. An El Niño event is predicted for the end of 2026, which could significantly increase the likelihood of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year. El Niño, a warming of the Pacific Ocean, typically influences global weather patterns and has previously contributed to record high temperatures, such as in 2023 and 2024.

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It is likely (86 per cent chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.

While the WMO notes it is highly unlikely that any single year in the next five will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the increasing frequency of exceeding the 1.5°C limit is a cause for concern. This trend underscores the urgency of addressing climate change and implementing measures to mitigate its effects.

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There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.