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🇳🇵 Nepal /Environment & Climate

Global temperatures to reach near-record highs in next five years, report finds

From Kathmandu Post · () English

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • Global temperatures are predicted to reach near-record highs in the next five years, with Arctic regions warming significantly faster than the global average.
  • The report from the UN weather agency and the UK's Met Office indicates a high likelihood that global temperatures will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels at least once between 2026 and 2030.
  • Scientists emphasize the closing window to limit global warming to 1.5°C, warning that continued warming could lead to more severe weather events worldwide.

Global average temperatures are set to soar to near-record levels within the next five years, according to a new report by the U.N. weather agency and the UK's Met Office. The forecast highlights a concerning acceleration of warming, particularly in the Arctic, which is expected to heat up at more than three and a half times the global average.

There’s very clear evidence that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature ​is continuing to rise.

— Melissa SeabrookA research scientist at the UK Met Office, commenting on the clear evidence of rising global temperatures.

The report predicts that annual global mean near-surface temperatures will range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period. Crucially, it states there is a high probability that the 1.5°C warming limit, established in the 2015 Paris Agreement to prevent severe climate events, will be temporarily surpassed for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. This period is also expected to see a year that exceeds the record warmth of 2024.

Temporarily crossing the 1.5C threshold does not mean ​the Paris Agreement has failed, as it refers to a long-term average over 20 years rather than a single year’s exceedance.

— Melissa SeabrookExplaining the nuance of exceeding the 1.5°C limit in the context of the Paris Agreement.

Melissa Seabrook, a research scientist at the UK Met Office, stressed the urgency, stating, "The science is very clear that the window to keeping the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees is closing rapidly." While a single year's exceedance does not signify the Paris Agreement's failure, it indicates a trend toward more frequent crossings of this critical threshold. The report also forecasts increased Arctic sea-ice melt and potential disruptions to global weather systems, leading to more severe weather events, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Wetter conditions are predicted for Northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia, and the Sahel, while the Amazon may experience dry periods. A strong El Niño event, predicted to persist into 2027, could further drive up global temperatures.

The science is very clear that the window to keeping the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees is closing rapidly.

— Melissa SeabrookEmphasizing the urgency of climate action.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Kathmandu Post. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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