Global trade will remain resilient over next two years: DMCC report

Global trade is poised to demonstrate resilience over the next two years, according to a new report by DMCC, though it will undergo significant transformation. The 'Future of Trade 2026' report identifies artificial intelligence, volatile tariffs, supply chain redesigns focused on resilience, and competition for industrial advantage in critical minerals as key forces reshaping the global economic landscape.

The report surveyed business leaders worldwide, revealing widespread expectations of continued challenges. More than 80 percent anticipate slow growth, persistent supply chain disruptions, and prolonged geopolitical volatility in the coming years. A smaller segment, nearly 12 percent, foresee a worst-case scenario marked by escalating conflicts, trade sanctions, and financial fragmentation.

Adding to the complexity, the report notes a substantial increase in trade restrictions. Nearly 20 percent of global merchandise imports are now subject to tariffs or similar limitations, a notable rise from 12.6 percent a year prior. Simultaneously, AI is rapidly emerging as a dominant factor influencing trade dynamics, suggesting a future where technology plays an even more central role in international commerce.