Gold Has Not Peaked, Analyst Sees New Rally and Attractive Entry Near $4,000

Gold’s rally may have stalled, but it has not reached its final peak, according to Tony Kim, Goldman Sachs’ global head of metals trading. He expects the precious metal to set new records once current market uncertainty clears, and sees prices around $4,000 an ounce as especially attractive for investors willing to build positions gradually.

Kim described the market’s recent performance as a “long pause” rather than a reversal of the bull market. Uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy has weakened some demand as investors try to determine how new Chair Warsh will approach inflation and interest rates. The U.S.-Iran conflict has added another layer of disruption, affecting not only oil but also agricultural and metals markets, while disturbing reserve flows in energy-exporting economies.

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The only flow that is still continuing right now

Markets have already priced in some of that uncertainty. Gold fell more than 2% on Sept. 1 as U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened, with spot gold down 2.4% in afternoon trading to $4,342.20 an ounce. Strong U.S. employment data on Sept. 4 put further pressure on prices and increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

Kim said most of his clients had sharply reduced their positions. Central-bank buying, however, remains an exception. “The only flow that is still continuing right now” is “central-bank accumulation,” he said, adding that he expects the bull market to resume and gold to reach new highs.

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Central-bank accumulation

Global mines produce about 3,500 tonnes of gold a year. Before the Russia-Ukraine war, central banks bought roughly 400 to 500 tonnes annually. Their purchases now approach 1,000 to 1,100 tonnes. World Gold Council data broadly confirms the scale of the shift, with central-bank purchases forecast at 863 tonnes in 2025, compared with an average of 473 tonnes from 2010 to 2021. Net demand is expected to reach 345 tonnes in the first half of 2026.

Demand from Chinese retail buyers, Indian physical-gold buyers and central banks was strong late last year and into 2026, Kim said. He expects volatility around economic data and Federal Reserve meetings, but remains positive on gold. “As far as the level we like, $4,000 is a pretty solid floor,” he said, arguing that sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors would buy near that level. His preference is to build positions gradually rather than attempt to identify the exact bottom.

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As far as the level we like, $4,000 is a pretty solid floor