Gray Zone Linkages: Analyzing Taiwan Strait Defense Risks from Dongsha and Philippine Reef

Taiwan's Coast Guard vessel intercepted and broadcast warnings to Chinese Coast Guard ships that entered the waters near Dongsha Island on May 23. While this first-line law enforcement is necessary, focusing solely on whether the vessels were successfully repelled risks reducing the Dongsha incident to an isolated event. Simultaneously, news of land reclamation at Philippine Reef (Lingyang Reef) should not be viewed in isolation. China appears to be systematically connecting its naval vessels, island claims, and maritime actions into a cohesive strategy.

Analysts at Taiwan's National Defense Security Research Institute have begun integrating discussions of South China Sea islands with foreign aid routes, sensor deployments, and wartime time differences. This does not imply that every reclaimed island directly signals an invasion threat. However, if China establishes coast guard, militia, or dual-use military bases on these islands, Taiwan must understand how these outposts affect access routes and timelines to the Taiwan Strait.

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The key to the Dongsha incident is not how intense the single confrontation was, but whether the Chinese Coast Guard is turning approach, claim, test, and leave into a fixed pattern.

Dongsha is not an isolated island, and Philippine Reef is not a distant place name. If the government fails to clearly articulate the connection between Dongsha, Philippine Reef, and Taiwan's defense strategy, China can continue to link its repeated incursions with longer sea routes. The incident at Dongsha underscores the need for a comprehensive understanding of China's maritime strategy. Following the immediate on-site response, the Ministry of National Defense should clearly explain the linkage between Dongsha, the South China Sea, and Taiwan's defense. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should also inform the international community about how China's coast guard activities and artificial islands increase pressure on Taiwan's external defenses. This strategic assessment must precede the next incursion.

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Dongsha is not an isolated island, and Philippine Reef is not a distant place name. If the government does not clarify the connection between Dongsha, Philippine Reef, and Taiwan's defense in a timely manner, China can link one approach after another to longer routes.