Guatemala on the threshold: the investment grade we could deserve

As a Guatemalan entrepreneur writing for Prensa Libre, I see a persistent disconnect between our nation's potential and its international perception. We possess remarkable economic strengths – a stable currency for over a decade, booming remittances, and robust GDP growth that consistently outpaces the region. Guatemala is the economic engine of Central America, generating nearly 36 cents of every new dollar produced in the isthmus. Yet, we languish at BB+, a rating that signals risk to the global market, keeping us just shy of the coveted investment grade.

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There are many factors in our favor.

The international agencies' cold assessment, while factually based, often overlooks the deeper, more nuanced challenges we face. It's not our macroeconomics that are fundamentally flawed; it's the perceived weakness of our institutions and the uncertainty surrounding our political landscape. This isn't about blaming a specific government or external actor, which would be a form of victimhood. Instead, we must confront the uncomfortable truth: how much of this distrust have we, as a nation, cultivated ourselves?

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As a Guatemalan businessman who has the opportunity to talk about the country in various investor forums, I frequently ask myself this question: when will it stop being necessary to explain why Guatemala deserves trust?

My experience in the business world has taught me that reputation is not built overnight; it's forged through countless daily decisions. This principle applies equally to nations. Achieving investment grade isn't a handout; it's the natural consequence of consistent, trustworthy actions. It reflects whether businesses operate formally, if public contracts are awarded on merit, and if disputes are resolved efficiently. The staggering 70% informality rate in Guatemala isn't just an economic statistic; it's a loud declaration of systemic distrust that resonates globally, often before any polished presentation can be delivered.

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Guatemala generates almost 36 cents of every new dollar produced in Central America. We are the largest economy in the region, and yet, international rating agencies keep us at BB+: one step below investment grade.

We are a nation brimming with entrepreneurial spirit – creative, resilient, and adept at achieving much with limited resources. Yet, we seem hesitant to fully trust our own potential. Our entrepreneurs compete on a world stage, but many still operate under the assumption that the rules are for others. Freedom to innovate is abundant in Guatemala, but freedom without responsibility erodes reputation. And without a solid reputation, investment grade remains an elusive dream. The path forward requires not just macroeconomic adjustments, but microeconomic diligence – the conscious, responsible choices made by every entrepreneur, professional, and citizen interacting with our system.

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It is the cold language of the markets telling us that we are still risky.