Hamas's Yahya Sinwar welcomed apocalyptic nuclear war if it meant destroying Israel - analysis

A handwritten document attributed to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, discovered during the Gaza war, reveals a startling mindset: Sinwar anticipated Israel might resort to nuclear weapons in the event of an October 7-style invasion. This revelation, according to analysis, highlights both Sinwar's perceived irrationality and a significant intelligence failure by Israel in understanding the depth of fanaticism within Hamas's leadership.

The document, dated August 24, 2022, predates the October 7 attacks by over a year. In it, Sinwar wrote that "the enemy will not hesitate to use all the means and weapons at its disposal... It may even use a nuclear bomb." He believed Israel would be surprised by the initial attack and descend into chaos. The analysis posits that Sinwar understood the devastating Israeli response that would follow, even contemplating the possibility of a nuclear strike, yet proceeded with the attack.

This perspective challenges the traditional understanding of deterrence, like the Cold War's Mutual Assured Destruction, which relied on the assumption of rational actors. Sinwar, driven by what is described as an "apocalyptic, messianic ideology," apparently viewed the potential destruction of Gaza as a price worth paying. His objective, according to this interpretation, was to ignite a wider regional conflict, drawing in Hezbollah, Iran, and potentially other actors, to ultimately consume Israel.

The analysis suggests that Sinwar's willingness to risk his own demise and the destruction of Gaza stemmed from a belief that Israel's destruction was paramount to his own salvation and the fulfillment of his ideological goals. The potential fallout of a nuclear bomb on Gaza, which would also affect Israel, was apparently not a deterrent but a calculated risk within his broader strategic vision.

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The enemy will not hesitate to use all the means and weapons at its disposal, not only through attack but also by other means. It may even use a nuclear bomb. But first, it will be surprised by the attack and descend into chaos.