Hamas strengthening military capacity during Gaza ceasefire, warns intelligence report

Despite a ceasefire that has been in place since late 2025, a warning from an Israeli intelligence unit suggests that the terror-designated group Hamas maintains an unchallenged position in Gaza and is actively enhancing its military capacity during this period of quiet.

Terrorism researcher Magnus Ranstorp, who has extensively studied Hamas, concurs with the assessment. He stated that Hamas's circumstances have improved as the organization faces less immediate pressure. "Over time, Hamas can grow," Ranstorp commented, noting that the lack of a legitimate alternative governing body in Gaza allows Hamas to consolidate its influence.

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Over time, Hamas can grow.

The Israeli military intelligence unit's warning, reportedly addressed to military chief Eyal Zamir and leaked to the Israeli public broadcaster Kan, highlights that no entity currently threatens Hamas's standing in Gaza. Ranstorp attributes this to the absence of a viable successor organization ready to govern the territory. The ceasefire agreement stipulated that a technocratic, apolitical committee would temporarily manage Gaza before handing over power to the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs the West Bank. However, Ranstorp points out that the PA suffers from corruption and low support in Gaza, leaving Hamas as the only entity with a cohesive power structure.

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Hamas is the only organization with a cohesive power structure in Gaza.

Although Hamas was significantly weakened by the war in Gaza, experiencing reduced access to weapons, funds, and functional transport networks, the intelligence report and Ranstorp indicate a rebuilding phase. "All signals today indicate that Hamas has less capacity but is building up and recruiting new capabilities," Ranstorp explained. He noted that new recruits are less experienced, and the organization faces shortages in funds and weapons systems, but emphasized the potential for long-term growth.

The intelligence unit's warning detailed that Hamas is smuggling drones back into Gaza and has been manufacturing explosives and anti-tank missiles. The group is also recruiting new members and training young men, with indications of preparations for a new attack against Israel. However, Ranstorp believes an attack on the scale and surprise of October 7, 2023, is unlikely. He previously noted that Hamas's military capabilities historically relied on self-manufactured weapons, and their stockpiles consisted of inexpensive, stolen, or second-hand items.

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All signals today indicate that Hamas has less capacity but is building up and recruiting new capabilities.