Hard-line Military Strategy in Colombia Risks Worsening Violence, Report Warns

Colombia's incoming president, Abelardo de la Espriella, faces a stark warning from Crisis Group: his proposed hard-line military strategy against armed groups risks escalating violence and further endangering vulnerable communities. De la Espriella, who takes office on August 7, has pledged to abandon his predecessor's "Total Peace" policy, which focused on negotiations, and instead implement a stricter security approach.

During his campaign, the lawyer and businessman promised to capture high-ranking members of armed groups, resume coca eradication, increase aerial bombardments, enhance cooperation with the United States including more extraditions, and build new "mega-prisons." However, Crisis Group asserts that such a crackdown carries "inevitable risks" and could lead to a surge in violence rather than its reduction.

"The new administration should carefully consider the risks of relying solely on a military response. A repressive campaign could aggravate the violence it seeks to contain and put already vulnerable communities at greater risk," stated Glaeldys González Calanche, Crisis Group analyst in Colombia, to Latin America Reports. De la Espriella narrowly won the June 21 presidential election runoff against leftist candidate Iván Cepeda, largely on the strength of his security platform.

Crisis Group notes that Colombia is grappling with its "most severe humanitarian crisis in a decade," marked by increased forced displacement, child recruitment, and the use of improvised explosive devices. While the report concedes that Colombia urgently needs a more effective security strategy, it argues that force alone will not dismantle the armed and criminal groups controlling vast areas of the country. It recommends a blend of selective military operations, enhanced intelligence, greater state presence, and continued dialogue where it can de-escalate violence.

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The new administration should carefully consider the risks of relying solely on a military response. A repressive campaign could aggravate the violence it seeks to contain and put already vulnerable communities at greater risk.