Hezbollah still strong enough to drag Lebanon into civil war, expert warns

Hezbollah has the military capabilities and support necessary to drag Lebanon into a civil war, according to Lt.-Col. (res.) Sarit Zehavi, founder of the Alma Research and Education Center. Her assessment comes after Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem urged the group's followers to "bring down the government." Qassem's directive, which Zehavi suspects was influenced by Iran, was framed as the people's right in response to an "American-Israeli project targeting our institutions."

Zehavi noted that while Hezbollah has made numerous statements against the Lebanese state, particularly before peace talks with Israel, it remains unclear if Qassem's recent remarks signal a genuine instruction for civil unrest or another instance of intimidation. "Whether this will actually start a civil war, we don’t know, but he definitely gave them the directive," Zehavi stated. She added, "It is definitely in the spirit of the [command] to go for it."

“

It is the people’s right to take to the streets and bring down the government in the face of the American-Israeli project targeting our institutions.

The expert emphasized Hezbollah's primary loyalty to Iran, not Lebanon, through the tenet of Wilayat al-Faqih, pledging allegiance to Iran's Supreme Leader. This alignment suggests Hezbollah's goals, including the destruction of Israel and the establishment of an Islamic state in Lebanon under Iranian influence, are consistent with Tehran's broader regional strategy. A civil war, therefore, would not be an illogical next step for the group.

Hezbollah faces pressure from both Israeli attacks and evolving international rhetoric regarding its demilitarization. This, combined with a significant Shia Muslim base, estimated at 32% of Lebanon's population in 2022, provides the group with the potential to seriously destabilize the country. Zehavi theorized that Qassem's speech might also serve to pressure the United States into a deal with Tehran, threatening regional disruption if demands for a ceasefire, unfreezing of Iranian assets, and U.S. withdrawal are not met.

“

Whether this will actually start a civil war, we don’t know, but he definitely gave them the directive. It is definitely in the spirit of the [command] to go for it.