Hezbollah turns to guerrilla tactics and drone strikes for a prolonged war

Hezbollah is preparing for a prolonged, low-intensity war with Israel by shifting toward guerrilla tactics, drone strikes and small-scale infiltrations, according to an assessment by the Alma Research and Education Center.

The center said Hezbollah could attempt to enter the security zone and potentially Israeli territory, while using drones and explosives for attacks. Its earlier plans to seize the Galilee have been significantly weakened by the destruction of its infrastructure and the continued presence of the Israel Defense Forces in southern Lebanon.

Limited infiltration attempts would probably be stopped, the center assessed. But even failed attempts could help Hezbollah identify weaknesses for possible future operations. The group’s underground infrastructure and the dense terrain also mean that operatives may remain hidden in the security zone, sometimes cut off from their command networks.

The assessment said individual Hezbollah operatives encountered by the IDF in recent months support the possibility of a continuing presence. Networks above and below ground, often embedded in civilian areas, are frequently booby-trapped, making efforts to locate and destroy them dangerous.

Hezbollah has made first-person-view drones and other unmanned aircraft a central part of its strategy, despite a shortage of trained operators. The drones, which can travel up to 60 kilometers, have been used to target Iron Dome batteries and other Israeli assets and personnel. The group has increased training for drone operators, while appearing to move away from precision-guided, cruise and shore-to-sea missiles because of their assessed cost-benefit ratio.