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🇬🇧 United Kingdom /Environment & Climate

Historic El Niño Risks Rising, U.S. Weather Service Warns

From The Guardian · () English

Translated from English, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

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  • The U.S. National Weather Service warns of rising risks for a historic El Niño event.
  • Models indicate an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño developing by year's end, potentially ranking among the largest on record.
  • Conditions are expected to persist through spring 2027, with potential to exacerbate extreme weather globally.

The U.S. National Weather Service has issued a stark warning: the risks of a historic El Niño event, with the potential to supercharge extreme weather worldwide, are increasing. Current models show an 81% probability that a very strong El Niño, likely to be among the most significant in historical records dating back to 1950, will form before the close of the year.

The odds and the magnitudes just keep rising.

— Daniel SwainClimate scientist, commenting on the increasing strength and probability of the El Niño event.

Forecasters have also indicated a near-certainty, a 97% probability, that these powerful El Niño conditions will continue through spring 2027. Climate scientist Daniel Swain noted that the observed conditions are already unprecedented. "El Niño so far, for the calendar date, is as strong or stronger than we’ve ever seen before, and that is a trajectory that is expected to continue," he stated.

El Niño so far, for the calendar date, is as strong or stronger than we’ve ever seen before, and that is a trajectory that is expected to continue.

— Daniel SwainClimate scientist, highlighting the unprecedented strength of the current El Niño conditions.

El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon marked by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, can cause significant atmospheric disruptions. It alters jet streams and precipitation patterns, leading to more severe storms in some regions and drought in others. While each El Niño event is unique, scientists are concerned that a "super El Niño", defined by sea surface temperatures at least 2°C (3.6°F) above average, could amplify global heat and wreak havoc.

June 2026 underscored how profoundly the climate is changing.

— Dr Samantha BurgessDeputy director of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, commenting on record-breaking heat.

The potential impacts of such an event are layered on top of the ongoing climate crisis. A previous super El Niño in 2015 caused severe drought in Ethiopia, water shortages in Puerto Rico, and a devastating hurricane season in the central-north Pacific. Such events typically bring drought and heat to Australia, southern and central Africa, India, and parts of South America, while increasing precipitation in the southern U.S., the Middle East, and south-central Asia. These forecasts come as the world experiences already record-breaking heat, with Western Europe enduring its hottest June on record.

The result is increasingly intense heatwaves, a persistently warm ocean, and growing risks for people, ecosystems and infrastructure.

— Dr Samantha BurgessDeputy director of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, describing the consequences of changing climate.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by The Guardian in English. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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