Hormuz must be cleared of 80 mines, may not open until year's end, says tanker body

Normal shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to resume before the end of the year, according to maritime experts, as the vital waterway must first be cleared of approximately 80 mines.

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The main route… through the middle of the Strait of Hormuz, that’s closed, that’s dangerous.

Richard Meade, editor-in-chief at Lloyd's List, stated that the main shipping channel through the strait is currently closed and dangerous. Phil Belcher, Intertanko's marine director, likened the situation to a highway where the central lanes are blocked, forcing traffic onto the hazardous "hard shoulder." He emphasized the urgent need to reopen the main route to ensure safe passage for the volume of traffic that normally transits the strait.

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This is like a highway where the road in the middle is closed, and you are using the hard shoulder. We need to get the highway open so we can get the volume of traffic through safely.

Beyond the immediate danger of mines, shipping companies are concerned about the potential for tolls to be imposed on vessels using the Strait of Hormuz. While tolls for canals like Suez or Panama are understood due to infrastructure investments, applying them to the Strait of Hormuz is seen as fundamentally wrong by some. However, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that no tolls would be imposed during the 60-day negotiation period, nor afterward, unless levied by and for the United States as reimbursement for its role as a "Guardian Angel" to Middle Eastern countries.

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Even if the ceasefire holds, around 10% of global container shipping capacity is impacted by the blockade and freight rates are spiraling across major trades. This scale of disruption and market volatility cannot be reversed overnight.

Ocean and air freight analytics firm Xeneta's chief analyst, Peter Sand, agreed that the disruption caused by the blockade, which impacts about 10% of global container shipping capacity, will take time to reverse. Even with a ceasefire, the market volatility and scale of disruption cannot be undone overnight. The closure of the strait has led to spiraling freight rates across major trade routes.

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Tolls for infrastructure such as the Suez or Panama canals are different, as they reflect major infrastructure investments. That’s not the case in the Strait of Hormuz.