Hormuz Strait: Six months of conflict reshape global oil route

Six months after the United States and Israel launched attacks against Iran on February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil transport, is functioning under drastically altered conditions. While the route remains open, it now accommodates fewer vessels, carries heightened risks, and experiences movements that often evade conventional tracking.

This shift has repercussions extending far beyond the Middle East. Prior to the conflict, the Strait facilitated the transit of over 20 million barrels of oil and derivatives daily. By August 24, this figure had fallen to approximately 5 million barrels. Understanding this decline is key to grasping how this narrow maritime passage between Iran and Oman influences international markets and impacts nations as distant as Ecuador.

Hormuz serves as the maritime gateway to the Persian Gulf, through which oil shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Iran are exported globally. Its significance is underscored by the fact that, before the conflict, roughly one in every five barrels of oil consumed worldwide passed through this point. Additionally, over 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade utilized this route.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) illustrates the dramatic change. Total oil and derivative flows decreased from 21.6 million barrels per day in late 2025 to 14.9 million in the first quarter of 2026, and further to 4.9 million in the second quarter. The situation intensified on February 28, 2026, when the U.S. and Israel initiated attacks on Iran, rapidly altering maritime navigation and prompting major operators to reduce or suspend their transits.

Tracking traffic through Hormuz has become more complex, as some vessels disable their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) for security reasons, forcing trackers to reconstruct their routes. The EIA acknowledges that AIS data in the strait has become particularly unreliable since late February. The risks remain substantial, with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) recording 68 confirmed incidents in Hormuz and other Middle Eastern waters by August 21, resulting in 19 seafarer deaths. Approximately 6,000 crew members were also involved in an evacuation plan that is currently suspended.