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🇰🇷 South Korea /Economy & Trade

Hormuz Strait traffic surges fivefold as Iran's control weakens

From Hankyoreh · () Korean

Translated from Korean, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has surged nearly fivefold in two weeks, indicating a weakening of Iran's control.
  • Increased use of an Omani coastal route, supported by the US, is facilitating this recovery, with over 80% of liquid cargo carriers using it.
  • Despite the traffic recovery, risks remain high due to ongoing threats from Iran and potential US sanctions, with several ships recently damaged by Iranian projectiles.

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has seen a dramatic increase, nearly quintupling in two weeks, signaling a potential erosion of Iran's control over the crucial waterway. Data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) shows a significant rise in ships transiting the strait, a positive trend following a period of near paralysis after the outbreak of war with Iran in late February.

Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait.

— Homayoun FalakshahiHead of crude oil analysis at Kpler, assessing the recent surge in ship traffic.

This recovery is largely attributed to the increased utilization of an Omani coastal route, which is supported by the United States and recognized by the International Maritime Organization. Shipping information firm Kpler reports that over 80% of liquid cargo carriers navigating the strait in the past two weeks have used this alternative route or operated with their tracking signals turned off. Kpler analysts suggest that many of these 'silent' vessels likely also used the Omani route, leading to an assessment that Iran has "at least partially lost control of the strait."

While the majority of transiting vessels are registered in US-friendly nations like Panama and Liberia, and include tankers and bulk carriers, the ship nationalities do not always reflect the true ownership of the companies. The increased traffic offers a more rational choice for shippers seeking to avoid potential transit fees or risks associated with Iranian control.

The Omani route is the most rational choice for ships.

— Dan PickeringFounder of Pickering Energy Partners, explaining the benefits of the alternative route.

However, the threat from Iran has not entirely disappeared. In the past week, five vessels have been hit by Iranian projectiles, resulting in casualties, though none sank. The US has responded by neutralizing Iranian radar and surveillance systems and deploying fighter jets capable of intercepting missiles and drones to support oil tanker transits. Some vessels have resorted to operating as a 'shadow fleet,' turning off their trackers and sailing close to the Omani coast to evade detection. Despite these measures, Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary has vowed to retaliate "like an earthquake" against further US economic sanctions and warned that countries cooperating with US sanctions will be considered enemies.

We will retaliate in a way similar to an earthquake.

— Mohsen RezaeiSecretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, vowing retaliation against US sanctions.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Hankyoreh in Korean. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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