Hotter autumn and possible cyclone forecast for Bangladesh

Bangladesh could face a hotter-than-usual autumn, below-average rainfall and a possible cyclone between September and November, according to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department.

The department expects four to six low-pressure systems to form over the Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon season. One or two could intensify into depressions, and at least one may develop into a cyclonic storm. The outlook also calls for six to 10 days of thunderstorms across the country.

Warmer conditions could bring three to five mild or moderate heatwaves. The department defines mild heatwaves as temperatures between 36°C and 37.9°C, and moderate heatwaves as temperatures between 38°C and 39.9°C. Meteorologist Dr Bazlur Rashid said average temperatures in October and November could remain 1 to 1.5°C above normal, which he described as significant. He attributed the higher post-monsoon temperatures primarily to the El Niño effect.

The department said Bangladesh received nearly normal rainfall in August, although the total was 5.7% below average. Chattogram and Mymensingh recorded above-normal rainfall, while Barishal and Sylhet experienced normal levels. Rainfall remained below normal in the other divisions.

Four low-pressure systems formed over the Bay in August, and two became seasonal depressions. Rivers are expected to maintain normal flows in September, but heavy rain could cause short-term flooding in northern, northeastern and southeastern parts of the country. The highest August temperature reached 37°C in Rajshahi on August 27, and the national average temperature was 0.7°C above normal.

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Generally, the average temperature in October and November may remain 1 to 1.5°C above normal, which is quite significant