How AI spoiled the football pool

An experiment involving AI predictions for the World Cup has highlighted how artificial intelligence could fundamentally alter social rituals like office football pools. The author, initially placing last after relying on AI predictions from Claude Opus 4.8, saw their ranking soar as the tournament progressed, raising questions about fairness and the spirit of competition.

"My AI strategy seemed to be failing miserably at first: after the first week, I was dead last," the author recounts. However, as the tournament unfolded, the AI's accuracy improved, propelling the author to the top. This success led to a peculiar dynamic where other colleagues' predictions began to resemble the AI's, sparking suspicion and a debate about whether the pool was still a human competition or a contest against a system.

AI researcher Sander Duivestein is quoted as saying, "Consulting the bookmakers beforehand is preparation. Googling the lineup is not weird for anyone. But running 25,000 simulations sounds like playing against a consultancy firm at the regulars' table. You no longer win as a human, the system wins." This sentiment captures the core tension: AI's analytical power transforms a game of chance and social interaction into a calculated, system-driven endeavor.

The author concludes that a football pool is more than just a prediction contest; it's a social ritual. Automating it with AI, as they did, brutally disrupted this ritual. The fun, according to a colleague, is lost when AI is involved. While AI didn't predict everything perfectly, struggling with Spain's performance and missing unexpected draws, the temptation to use it to win remains. However, if everyone uses AI, the enjoyment evaporates, leaving a lingering question: who truly won, and can such a competition remain authentic?