How climate change and food insecurity could fuel conflicts

The greatest danger facing the global food system may not be food shortages alone, but whether societies can adapt peacefully to a rapidly changing agricultural landscape.

Droughts and extreme weather are already damaging harvests in many regions, while a developing El Niño threatens to deepen shortages for millions next year. Wars and geopolitical tensions are also disrupting the supply chains that move food and agricultural inputs. The war in Ukraine has repeatedly shaken grain markets, while the Iran war's impact on the Strait of Hormuz has raised fuel and fertilizer costs for farmers worldwide.

When families can no longer afford to eat, pressure builds around land, water and other resources. In fragile countries, those pressures can drive social unrest, migration and armed conflict. New research by Laura Mayoral, Hannes Mueller and colleagues maps these risks through the Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index, or CADI.

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The heaviest losses are in the tropical regions.

"The heaviest losses are in the tropical regions," said Mueller, a researcher at the Institute for Economic Analysis and the Barcelona School of Economics. He pointed to Australia, Argentina, Moldova, Nigeria, Romania, the United States and Sudan as countries already experiencing agricultural losses. He also warned about North Africa: "If you look at the map, it just looks terrible. It really looks horrible."

The research points to a less obvious source of tension. Agricultural gains can also increase the risk of violence because they change the value of land and resources, creating new winners and losers. Within 25 years, nearly half the world's population could live in areas where farms produce less food. In unstable societies, those shifts can undermine governments and make it easier for armed groups to recruit fighters.

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If you look at the map, it just looks terrible. It really looks horrible.