How Iran is trying to regain regional influence by striking Israel - analysis

Iran is strategically maneuvering to reassert its regional influence following a series of significant setbacks. In recent years, the Islamic Republic has experienced the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, endured direct military attacks from Israel and the United States, and witnessed the weakening of key proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah.

Historically, Iran attempted to seize the regional initiative after October 7 by launching a multi-front war against Israel. However, this strategy faltered in September 2024 when Israel initiated heavy attacks on Hezbollah, leading to the elimination of leaders from both Hezbollah and Hamas, including Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh who was killed in Iran. This diminished Iran's ability to keep Israel on the defensive.

Despite launching major ballistic missile and drone attacks on Israel in 2024, Iran failed to achieve its objectives. Israel weathered these attacks and subsequently launched surprise strikes in June 2025 during the "12 Day War," with the U.S. joining later, signaling growing regional coordination against Iran. Iran also perceived assistance from some Gulf states to Israel, potentially facilitated by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).

These developments, coupled with internal crackdowns on protests and combined U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026, have left Iran's strategic position precarious. Observing Lebanon engage in talks with Israel, Iran views this as a loss of critical pieces in its long-constructed regional influence. Consequently, since April, Iran has linked any potential deal to a ceasefire in Lebanon, pressuring the U.S. to influence Israel's actions, though Israel has continued to strike Hezbollah targets.