How many citizens might vote and how researchers assess Vučić's claim of 80% decided

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has declared that over 80% of citizens have already decided on their vote for the upcoming elections, a figure he claims is unprecedented in Serbia. Vučić stated that the public is aware of the elections' significance and that the state is not a "toy."

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Vučić is sending a message that the cards are already dealt and there is no reason or space for anything to change, thereby encouraging his supporters and demotivating the wavering and undecided voters.

However, political analysts interpret Vučić's announcement as a strategic move. Đorđe Vukadinović, editor of Nova srpska politička misao, suggests Vučić uses such data to signal that the "cards are already dealt," aiming to encourage his base and demotivate undecided voters. Vukadinović notes that while Vučić's figures are often self-serving, this particular percentage is not far from recent poll results.

According to Vukadinović, undecided voters in Serbian polls typically range between 20% and 25%. He explains that a recent survey showed 25% undecided after an option for "against the government, but don't know for whom" was removed, leading to an increase in support for student lists and the undecided category. Therefore, Vučić's 80% decided or the polls' 75% is not sensational, unlike figures of 2-3% he might have cited previously.

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This is a situation where he hasn't missed the percentage by much, but he has missed the interpretation. The percentage of undecided has been varying from 20 or 25 percent in polls for quite some time.

Regarding voter turnout, Vukadinović believes the high percentage of decided voters suggests a potentially larger turnout than usual. He estimates that actual participation could reach 65% to 70%, or even 75%, which would be considered very high. He draws a parallel to Montenegro's 2020 election, which saw 75% turnout, though he notes Montenegro's voter rolls are more up-to-date than Serbia's.

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His 80 percent decided, or our 75, is nothing sensational. It would be if it were two or three percent, as he said a few months ago.

Vukadinović remains uncertain about Vučić's specific political motive beyond signaling that the election outcome is largely predetermined. He suggests it serves to reinforce the idea that voter choices are fixed, leaving little room for shifts in support.

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Therefore, if you take these percentages, the turnout will be 65 or 70/75 percent at best, which is very high.