How many people are dying as a result of USAID’s demise?

Elon Musk, in his capacity as a former advisor to Donald Trump, insists that the dismantling of USAID, the world's largest foreign-aid agency, has not cost any lives. He stated, "Zero point zero." However, this assertion is met with strong disagreement from aid bureaucrats and researchers.

A significant study published in The Lancet in July 2025 estimates that 14 million people could die by 2030 as a consequence of USAID's closure. While neither Musk's claim of zero deaths nor the Lancet's high-end estimate may be entirely accurate, the abrupt cessation of USAID's operations, which previously funded a vast array of programs from HIV drugs to disaster relief, has undeniably disrupted life-saving assistance.

While some of USAID's functions have been absorbed by other government bodies, the transition has not been seamless. Confusion over waivers for essential services led to the permanent cessation of some aid. In Malawi, the disruption of ambulance services from remote villages has had tragic consequences. Health workers reported that mothers died from complications in labor because they could not reach clinics, with one family losing 25-year-old Prudence in March 2025.

Similarly, in Somalia, the closure of UNICEF clinics, partly due to American funding cuts, has impacted the treatment of severely malnourished children. The number of hospitalizations doubled in 2025, with some children succumbing to their conditions. Quantifying the exact number of deaths attributable to these cuts remains challenging, as aid cuts also reduced funding for health surveys. The estimates, therefore, rely on less precise, higher-level methods.