How many points are needed to advance to the World Cup knockouts?

With the World Cup field expanded to 48 teams, the pathway to the knockout stages has become more complex, involving not only the top two teams from each of the 12 groups but also the eight best third-placed finishers.

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As the weekend’s action across Canada, Mexico and the United States begins to give the group standings some shape, so the calculators will come out to start determining what the minimum requirement will be to advance to the last 32.

As group standings begin to take shape, calculators are being employed to determine the minimum points required to advance to the last 32. While this is only the second time FIFA has used such a large field, historical data from previous tournaments, including the 1986 World Cup where the best four third-placed teams advanced, offers some guidance.

A survey of 38 FIFA tournaments and continental championships with 24-team fields indicates that teams securing five points from their three group games have never failed to advance. Four points has also historically been a strong indicator of progression, though there have been rare instances, particularly in U-20 World Cups, where teams with four points did not advance. Notably, some teams have even finished bottom of their group with four points.

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Five points: Never has a team collecting five points from their three group games finished out of the first two places in the group stage.

Teams finishing with three points face a more uncertain future. While there's a less than 50% success rate, a positive goal difference significantly improves their chances. However, a negative goal difference drastically reduces the likelihood of advancing, with one exception being Norway at the 2019 U-20 World Cup, who were eliminated despite a positive goal difference and a remarkable 12-0 victory. At the recent U-17 World Cup in Qatar, four out of six third-placed teams with three points managed to progress.

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Three points: There is a slightly less than 50 per cent success rate for teams finishing on three points, but those sides almost all have a positive goal difference.

Advancing with just two points is exceptionally rare, occurring in only two surveyed tournaments. The most recent instance was Tanzania at the Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco late last year. The analysis, compiled by Mark Gleeson in Atlanta and edited by Toby Davis, provides a statistical outlook for teams vying for a spot in the next round.

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In only two of the tournaments surveyed, with three points for a win, did a side finish among the best four third-placed teams with a meagre two points, most recently Tanzania at the Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco late last year.