How much do the AfD’s historic gains in Germany matter for the rest of Europe?

Was the Alternative for Germany’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt really a political earthquake? Analysts and several publications called the result “seismic,” a “socio-political earthquake” and a “turning point for Germany.” Yet the state is one of Germany’s smallest, with 1.7 million of the country’s 59 million eligible voters, and the AfD did not win an absolute majority.

The answer, according to the article, is that the result remains highly significant, first of all inside Germany. Although the election was regional, the AfD’s sweeping win puts additional pressure on Berlin’s already fragile centrist governing coalition. It could also become a decisive blow for conservative Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who had promised to reduce the party’s popularity but remains deeply unpopular.

The political strain comes at a difficult moment for Germany, Europe’s strongest actor in the European Union. The article says domestic problems risk weakening and distracting Berlin while Europe confronts Russia’s aggression, trade tensions created by tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, and the economic threat from China.

The result has also reopened a national reckoning with Germany’s Nazi past. It represents the first success on this scale for a far-right nationalist party since the fall of the Third Reich in 1945, giving the AfD a realistic chance to govern at least at the regional level. German authorities have partly classified the party as anti-democratic, while several regional branches, including Saxony-Anhalt’s, have been designated far-right organizations. The party is especially popular in eastern Germany, but polls now place it as the country’s largest party.

The vote also resonated in Washington. Trump quickly shared an exit poll from Saxony-Anhalt on Truth Social. The AfD’s anti-immigration and anti-“woke” message, centered on “Germany for Germans,” closely resembles Trump’s “Make America Great Again” rhetoric. Like other nationalist parties in Europe, the AfD draws heavily on Trump’s political playbook, including attacks on mainstream media, although the supplied article ends before completing that point.