How Sweden's next opponent is decided if they finish third

Sweden's World Cup journey faces an uncertain future, with a potential two-day wait to learn if their tournament continues, should they finish third in their group. The expanded 48-team format has created a complex knockout bracket, making the path for teams finishing in third place particularly convoluted.

If Sweden manages to secure one of the eight best third-place finishes, they could face any of five different group winners in the round of 16. The most straightforward route for Sweden would be to defeat Japan in their upcoming match, which would likely see them finish second in their group and advance to face the winner of Group C in Houston.

However, given the team's performance so far, a loss to Japan is considered more probable. In such a scenario, Sweden would need to rely on favorable results elsewhere to advance as a third-place team. This situation mirrors the experience of the Swedish women's national team in the 2015 World Cup, where they endured a tense wait before advancing.

FIFA has implemented a system where the eight best third-place teams advance to a round of 16, necessitating a complex matrix to determine potential matchups. Out of 495 possible combinations for advancing third-place teams, Sweden's group scenario is factored into 330 of them. The most probable outcome, occurring in over 83% of these scenarios, is a round of 16 clash against the winner of Group I, which is expected to be either France or Norway. There is also a slim, though notable, chance of facing Germany, the winner of Group E.

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It is probably the worst thing I have gone through, I think, in my long career, it was terrible.