How the Gulf will manage collective security after the Iran war ends

As Washington and Tehran signal a move towards a long-term ceasefire, Gulf states are bracing for a shift in regional security dynamics, likely necessitating new long-term solutions. The prospect of an end to the conflict, which the Gulf states did not initiate, places a spotlight on their future security architecture.

This development follows U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that strikes on Iran were canceled, with a deal reportedly imminent. While Iranian officials expressed caution, reviewing a proposed Memorandum of Understanding, subsequent comments from Pakistan's Prime Minister suggest a deal is indeed being forged, carrying significant implications for regional stability.

The region's security model has long relied on partnerships with the United States, which operates numerous military facilities across the Middle East. These bases have historically served as a deterrent and provided crucial logistical and intelligence support. However, the recent four-month conflict with Iran has challenged this arrangement.

Despite Iranian officials referring to their Gulf neighbors as "brothers," Tehran has targeted them during the war. Suspected Iranian drone and rocket attacks have killed at least 28 people across the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. These attacks raise critical questions about the effectiveness and reliability of the U.S.-Gulf security framework, exposing a paradox where allies become targets.

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If there is a way to describe the prevailing security model in the region since the 1980s, the concept of security partnerships best encapsulates it. The countries of the region have chosen to align their security with broad international alliances. For decades, this model has provided a reasonable deterrent and logistical and intelligence depth that is difficult to replace.