How the U.S.-Canada trade dispute is affecting economies on both sides of the border

Tariffs are moving from the factory floor into the U.S. congressional elections, with Michigan and Pennsylvania emerging as key battlegrounds in the trade dispute with Canada.

Michigan has four competitive House races that could affect control of the chamber, as well as a Senate contest between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. One of the House districts borders Canada. Rogers has campaigned on protecting manufacturing, but the state’s economic record under President Donald Trump’s tariff policies is becoming harder to ignore.

Since Trump announced global tariffs on what he called “liberation day” last year, Michigan has lost 8,300 manufacturing jobs on a net basis. It also faces the third-highest tariff cost of any state, including about $15 billion in tariffs affecting the auto industry alone.

One Republican national campaign source told PBS that Michigan could be the state where tariffs have the greatest effect on the election. The economic consequences are increasingly drawing voters’ attention, even as Republicans remain confident in their candidates there.

Pennsylvania faces a separate threat from Canada’s newly announced 50% tariffs on American-made motorcycles. In the state’s 10th Congressional District, the York County Harley-Davidson assembly plant sits at the center of the dispute.

Harley-Davidson said earlier in the summer that it planned to expand after a period of layoffs and recovery. The new tariff measures now threaten to freeze that momentum, creating a political problem for the member of Congress representing the district.

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I will fight for manufacturing in this state.