Iceland Edging Closer to EU Membership Amid Shifting Geopolitics

Iceland is moving closer to the European Union, with a referendum on August 29th deciding whether to resume membership negotiations. This potential shift is driven by a new geopolitical climate and domestic economic pressures, including rising inflation. Polls indicate a divided public, with around 45 percent supporting membership and over a third opposed.

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The new geopolitical situation makes EU membership more attractive for both Iceland and Norway. However, Norwegian skepticism towards the EU remains strong.

The debate mirrors that in Norway, where EU skepticism has historically led to referendums rejecting membership. Iceland's decision could significantly impact Norway's position, potentially making it the sole Nordic country outside the EU. Norway's opposition parties acknowledge rising support for EU membership but are hesitant to promise a new referendum until stable majority backing is evident.

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Should negotiations on Iceland's membership in the EU continue?

Fisheries and agriculture are central to the discussions in both countries. Proponents in Iceland argue that special arrangements, similar to those secured by Sweden and Finland in 1995, could be negotiated. Opponents doubt the feasibility of such concessions. Iceland's Foreign Minister suggests that if negotiations begin after a 'yes' vote, they could conclude within 18 months, given Iceland's existing alignment with EU legislation through its EEA and Schengen memberships. However, any final membership agreement would require a second referendum.

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Norway would be in a completely different situation if its EFTA partner Iceland joins the EU.