In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the SPD benefits from incumbency – yet an abyss threatens. All election polls

In the northeastern German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is leveraging the advantage of incumbency, but polls indicate a potential significant drop in support in the upcoming September 20 election. While the SPD, led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, has recently narrowed the gap, its projected result remains considerably lower than its 2021 performance. The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is also seeing a decline in polls, playing a minor role in the region's political landscape.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, with Leif-Erik Holm as its lead candidate, is currently polling as the strongest force in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Despite Schwesig's continued popularity within the state, satisfaction with the state government is decreasing, and the SPD is struggling nationally. The current red-red coalition between the SPD and The Left party is projected to lose its majority based on recent surveys.

Forming a governing coalition is expected to be challenging, as no mainstream party is willing to partner with the AfD. A potential alliance against the AfD might require multiple parties, such as the SPD, The Left, and the CDU. The participation of smaller parties like the Greens, FDP, or the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) remains uncertain, as they are hovering near the five-percent threshold. The CDU has explicitly ruled out a coalition with The Left, opening possibilities for a minority government led by the SPD.

Such a minority government would need to prioritize education, economy, and migration – issues frequently cited by respondents as the most pressing problems. While the state has direct influence over education policy, decisions on economy and migration are heavily dependent on federal and EU policies. This situation could exacerbate dissatisfaction with the federal government. The SPD's strategy heavily relies on Schwesig's personal appeal to close the gap with the AfD and organize a majority, both of which appear to be difficult tasks.