In Nigel Farage’s shoes, a less experienced politician might panic

Despite Reform UK consistently leading in national polls, the party's performance in recent by-elections presents a more complex picture. While Reform UK has topped polls over 300 times, its success in by-elections has been limited, securing only one seat since the 2024 general election.

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Yes, Robert Kenyon came second in Makerfield to a popular regional mayor backed by a Labour campaign so relentless that the main risk was annoying voters by knocking too often on their doors. Kenyon also increased his and Reform’s share of the vote from the 2024 general election.

The recent by-election in Makerfield, which Reform UK's Robert Kenyon came second in, was considered a disappointment by some, given the seat's demographic favorability. This follows another distant second-place finish in Gorton and Denton, where the Green candidate secured the win. These results, along with a narrow victory in Runcorn and Helsby by just six votes last year, suggest a potential trend of mixed outcomes.

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This, though, was a seat so demographically Reform-friendly that some pundits warned Andy Burnham was taking a big risk using it as his vehicle for a return to Westminster. In that context, as Farage himself said on Friday morning, Makerfield was a disappointment.

Lessons from these contests point to the importance of candidate selection. In Gorton and Denton, Matthew Goodwin, despite his online popularity, was seen as a poor contrast to the Green candidate. For Makerfield, Kenyon, a local plumber and army reservist, faced scrutiny over his past online posts, which included controversial comments about women and skepticism towards vaccines. These revelations, coupled with public call-outs, reportedly deterred voters.

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The larger danger is that it could become a trend. Of the five byelections held since the general election in 2024, Reform has only won a single seat, last year in Runcorn and Helsby – and that by precisely six votes.

Furthermore, Reform UK appears vulnerable to tactical voting, with anecdotal evidence suggesting that votes for parties not perceived as contenders were directed towards candidates seen as opposing Nigel Farage. The party also faces increasing competition from its right flank, with Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain emerging as a notable challenger, even securing 7% of the vote in one by-election.

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Journalists and activists for other parties pored over his X accounts, plus comments on a now-defunct rugby league message board, finding scepticism for vaccines, strong support for Donald Trump and – most damaging of all – some excruciatingly crude comments about women.