Independent voters hold more power over Israel elections than before, strategic adviser says

Independent voters now wield greater power in Israeli elections, a significant shift from previous dynamics where political deals dominated, according to strategic adviser and political commentator Barak Seri. In an interview with 103FM, Seri argued that the influence of independent voters has surged to 60-70%, reversing the past where deals controlled the majority.

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Independent voters have more power. In the past, the deals were stronger, they controlled 60%, and today it has reversed.

This shift in power, Seri suggested, explains why figures like Haim Katz, known for brokering Likud deals, are seeking reserved spots. He framed the upcoming Likud party primaries as a crucial test for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose ability to sway independent voters will be paramount.

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Today, independent voters account for 60% to 70%, and deals account for 30%. That is why Haim Katz, the king of Likud deals, asked for a reserved spot. If the deals were so strong, he could have been elected through the deals. This will be Netanyahu’s big test.

Seri also alleged that Netanyahu has been working behind the scenes to weaken the standing of specific party members, including Nir Barkat, David Bitan, and Tally Gotliv. According to Seri, Netanyahu's success in pushing these individuals down the party list would demonstrate his significant influence over independent voters. Conversely, their high placement despite Netanyahu's alleged efforts would signal their independent strength.

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If he succeeds in pushing them down the list, then we will learn that his power among independent voters is also significant. If not, they will come and say, ‘We received high spots despite Netanyahu working against us.’

The commentator further linked a recent public dispute between Yinon Magal and MK Tally Gotliv to Netanyahu's alleged briefings against her. Seri claimed that Netanyahu's office, concerned about polls suggesting Gotliv and May Golan's high placement could cost Likud seats, initiated these briefings. He suggested Netanyahu desires a more compliant faction in the next Knesset, and Gotliv's independent stance might be a concern.

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You cannot deny his work against them in such a blatant way. The moment he briefs Yinon Magal, and his people brief Amit Segal, and these things appear the way they did, then it is clear that he wants to see them lower down the list.