Indian illegal immigration to US drops 69% from peak in 2023

Illegal immigration from India to the United States has plummeted, with U.S. border authorities recording a 69% decrease in encounters with Indian migrants through May of FY2026 compared to the same period in FY2023, when migration peaked.

During the first eight months of FY2026 (October to May), U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data shows 20,614 encounters nationwide. This is a substantial drop from nearly 29,000 in the same period of FY2025 and a dramatic decrease from the peak of 67,212 encounters in FY2023.

The sharp decline is largely attributed to the Trump administration's more stringent immigration policies. Gilbert Guerra of the Niskanen Center explained that making it difficult for migrants to believe they have a chance of a positive outcome significantly impacts their decision. "These trips are expensive. They are not ones that people can try again and again the way that they could if they were from, say, Guatemala, and could just very easily try if they fail first," Guerra noted.

Crossings at the U.S. land borders have seen the most dramatic falls. Encounters at the southwestern border dropped by nearly 99%, from 30,109 in FY2023 to just 417 through May of FY2026. Along the northern border, encounters fell by 91% from FY2024 levels to 2,250. Guerra suggested that crossings along the northern border remain relatively higher because Canada, unlike Mexico, hosts a large Indian diaspora, making it a more attractive transit point.

Despite the significant reduction, Guerra anticipates that irregular migration from India will continue to be higher than from countries like Russia and China. The data indicates a clear impact of U.S. border enforcement and asylum policies on deterring potential migrants from India.

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I think what we’ve seen is that making it so that people do not think that they actually have a chance of a good outcome if they come here through these channels does have an impact because these trips are expensive. They are not ones that people can try again and again the way that they could if they were from, say, Guatemala, and could just very easily try if they fail first. It’s a lot of money to invest to put forth towards an outcome.