Intentional Homicides Decline 51% in Mexico Under Sheinbaum; Seven States Account for 49% of Cases

Mexico's federal government announced a significant reduction in intentional homicides, reporting a 51% decrease in the daily average since President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo's administration began. The daily average has fallen from 86.9 murders in September 2024 to 42.5 in July of the current year, a trend the government attributes to its security strategy.

Despite the national progress, seven states concentrate nearly half of all intentional homicide cases. These states are Guanajuato (8.6%), Baja California (8.2%), Chihuahua (8.1%), Sinaloa (7.1%), Estado de México (6%), Guerrero (5.6%), and Morelos (5.5%). However, even within these high-concentration areas, the federal government presented data indicating a daily average decrease of up to 76% in some of these previously violent regions.

Guanajuato, which saw an increase in homicides in the early months of Sheinbaum's term, has experienced a drastic reduction since February 2025. The state's daily homicide average dropped from 12.7 to just 3.1 by July, marking a 76% decrease. Baja California also shows a consistent downward trend, with its daily average falling from 7.1 in September 2024 to 3.7 in July, a 48% reduction.

Sinaloa, however, faced a significant spike in homicides starting in September 2024, attributed to disputes between organized crime factions. The state reached its peak in June 2025 with 6.9 daily cases. In contrast, by the end of July 2026, Sinaloa recorded only 3.3 cases per day, indicating a substantial decrease from its recent peak.

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In 22 months, the reduction of intentional homicide is half of what we received [...] We can talk about results, about the strategy yielding results.