INTERACTIVE: AfD widens lead over conservatives in latest German election polls

The AfD has widened its lead over Germany’s CDU/CSU in the latest NZZ election trend, reaching its highest level in the tracker while the conservative bloc falls to its lowest since early 2022. The Greens have also moved ahead of the SPD for the first time since 2022.

The NZZ trend combines polls from nine research institutes published by wahlrecht.de. It calculates an average of each party’s latest surveys, giving more weight to newer polling. The estimate includes a separate margin of error for each party, generally no more than plus or minus three percentage points.

The shift marks a major change from the 2025 federal election. On February 23 that year, the CDU/CSU stood almost eight percentage points ahead of the AfD. The Union won the election, but the AfD recorded the largest increase in support. Current projections suggest the FDP and BSW would still fail to clear the 5% threshold. Parties can enter the Bundestag below that threshold if they win at least three constituency seats, but the NZZ considers that unlikely for both parties.

Using the latest poll figures without applying that constituency-seat rule, the CDU/CSU and SPD would no longer command a parliamentary majority. An alliance of the SPD, Greens and Left Party would also fall short. The trend points to gains for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where elections are due in the autumn. The NZZ describes its figures as a snapshot of current voting intentions, not a forecast of a final result.