Interim US-Iran Deal Leaves the Thorniest Issue Still to Be Negotiated: Tehran’s Nuclear Program

An interim deal between the United States and Iran is set to launch a two-month period focused on negotiating Tehran's nuclear program, a central issue in the long-standing conflict between the two nations. Preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons was a primary justification cited by President Donald Trump for initiating military action alongside Israel in February. However, the tentative agreement, which Trump has promoted, leaves a narrow window for resolving this persistent sticking point.

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My skepticism is Iran itself. What would a good deal look like? No enrichment. And we’ll see if we can get there. But whether or not we can get phase two, I don’t know.

Negotiating the previous nuclear accord between Iran and world powers, from which Trump withdrew the US during his first term, took many months. While public details of the initial agreement, slated for signing in Switzerland, are scarce, it reportedly involves reopening the Strait of Hormuz to global oil traffic, offering financial incentives to Iran contingent on meeting specific benchmarks, and dedicating 60 days to discussions aimed at halting the country's nuclear activities.

Deep skepticism pervades both Republican and Democratic lawmakers, pro-Israel groups, and Israel itself, questioning the deal's feasibility, workability, and potential impact on nuclear negotiations. "My skepticism is Iran itself. What would a good deal look like? No enrichment. And we’ll see if we can get there," stated Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, a staunch Trump ally and long-time Iran hawk. "But whether or not we can get phase two, I don’t know."

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this administration has proven that it has a hard time keeping its attention on these issues.

David Schenker, director of the Arab Politics Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, expressed doubts about the current administration's ability to maintain focus, noting, "this administration has proven that it has a hard time keeping its attention on these issues." He questioned whether the administration possesses the necessary resolve to finalize a nuclear deal, even if the initial agreement is signed. "This is the kind of thing that requires dogged attention, attention to detail and numerous technical experts involved," Schenker said. "Trump loses his attention, moves on, and so the administration does. It’s like they don’t understand Iran’s strategy. They didn’t get it the first time, or the second."

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This is the kind of thing that requires dogged attention, attention to detail and numerous technical experts involved. Trump loses his attention, moves on, and so does the administration. It’s like they don’t understand Iran’s strategy. They didn’t get it the first time, or the second.

Despite these concerns, the Trump administration maintains its confidence. Vice President JD Vance indicated that while much technical detail requires negotiation, Iran must demonstrate action to receive benefits like sanctions relief. "Our plan under this deal is, again, the Iranians are getting a lot of benefits so long as they dismantle that nuclear weapons program," Vance told Megyn Kelly on her podcast. "People always ask me, ‘Why do you believe it this time?’ I don’t believe them," he added. "I don’t trust anything that anybody says. I trust what people do. And the way this deal is structured is that as they do more, they receive more. As they do less, they receive less." Iran has consistently asserted that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

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Our plan under this deal is, again, the Iranians are getting a lot of benefits so long as they dismantle that nuclear weapons program. People always ask me, ‘Why do you believe it this time?’ I don’t believe them. I don’t trust anything that anybody says. I trust what people do. And the way this deal is structured is that as they do more, they receive more. As they do less, they receive less.