Investigation: Suspicious betting on Gerry Hutch in Dublin Central byelection

An investigation by The Irish Times has uncovered deeply concerning activity on the betting platform Polymarket concerning the upcoming Dublin Central byelection. The sheer volume of money, over $1 million, wagered on the outcome, coupled with the highly unusual nature of the bets, raises serious questions about the integrity of the process.

“

Most of the money placed on the Dublin Central byelection on the controversial Polymarket platform came from accounts engaged in highly suspicious betting behaviour, an Irish Times investigation has found.

The analysis, conducted in collaboration with Anti-Corruption Data Collection (ACDC), revealed that a staggering 86% of the funds originated from accounts engaged in "self-trading." This practice, where bets are placed and quickly reversed with minimal profit, is a significant red flag. Experts consulted by The Irish Times indicate that such behavior is often a marker for illicit financial activities, including money laundering and market manipulation.

“

Almost half of these unusual bets were placed on Gerry Hutch, the gangland figure known as ‘The Monk’, to lose in the byelection, which takes place on Friday.

What is particularly striking is that almost half of these suspicious bets were specifically placed on Gerry Hutch, known as ‘The Monk,’ to lose the election. While the investigation makes no suggestion of involvement by Mr. Hutch or any other candidate, the concentration of unusual betting activity around one individual is noteworthy. Polymarket, which operates anonymously using cryptocurrency and currently lacks a gambling license in Ireland, exists in a legal grey area, making it a potential haven for such activities.

“

Experts say these betting patterns can be indicative of illicit behaviour such as money laundering, market manipulation or attempts to make a betting market appear more active than it is.

This situation highlights the urgent need for robust regulation of online betting platforms, especially those operating outside established legal frameworks. The potential for these platforms to be exploited for criminal purposes, as suggested by these betting patterns, cannot be overstated. The Irish Times remains committed to shedding light on such issues to ensure transparency and accountability.

“

There is no suggestion Hutch or any other candidate is involved in the betting.