Iran Goes on Offensive as Diplomacy with US Stalls

Six months into its conflict with the United States, Iran's military is signaling a strategic pivot from retaliation to offense. Analysts interpret this shift as Tehran's belief that it now holds sufficient leverage to advance its demands and break the current stalemate. Since the war began on February 28 with U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran has primarily framed its actions against the U.S., Israel, and Gulf nations as revenge for previous attacks.

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strengthening maximum deterrence and preparing to conduct large-scale offensive operations against the enemy

Iranian officials are now openly discussing a greater emphasis on offensive operations, alongside maintaining control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This waterway is a critical point of leverage against Washington, significantly disrupting global energy routes and driving up prices. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei recently called for "strengthening maximum deterrence and preparing to conduct large-scale offensive operations against the enemy." A deputy commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards also indicated a revision of military doctrine to prioritize "offensive operations."

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offensive operations

Sina Toossi, an analyst at the Center for International Policy, believes this shift does not signify a doctrine of preventive war. Instead, Tehran appears to have concluded that if confrontation is unavoidable, it should escalate earlier and more forcefully rather than allowing the U.S. or Israel to dictate the terms of the conflict. Ahmad Zeidabadi, an international relations expert based in Tehran, suggests the move reflects Iran's assessment that the U.S. has likely ruled out war and prefers to maintain the status quo, including the naval blockade and economic pressure.

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if confrontation becomes unavoidable, Iran should escalate earlier and more forcefully rather than wait for the United States or Israel to define the terms of the conflict

Diplomatic efforts with the U.S. remain stalled, particularly after a June 17 truce collapsed and the U.S. reimposed oil sanctions and a blockade on Iranian ports. "Iranians believe that diplomacy is doomed to fail in the current climate and that the Americans will not accept their terms," Zeidabadi told AFP. "Consequently, they may feel compelled to resort to offensive action to force the U.S. to accept Iranian conditions ... and to initiate a new round of negotiations." Despite suffering heavy losses, including the deaths of senior leaders and significant material damage, Iran's political system remains intact. The conflict has also spread to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea's Bab al-Mandab strait.

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The Islamic Republic believes the United States has likely ruled out war and now seeks to perpetuate the status quo including the US naval blockade and the economic pressure