Iran Hopes to Deal Trump a Blow at Midterms by Keeping Him Entangled in War

Tehran is strategically prolonging negotiations with the United States, aiming to keep former President Donald Trump entangled in conflict until the crucial US midterm elections. This tactic is designed to inflict significant political damage on Trump, drawing parallels to the debilitating effect the 1979-81 US embassy hostage crisis had on Jimmy Carter's presidency.

For many in Iran, exacting revenge on Trump is a primary objective. This sentiment is fueled by his decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal in 2018, his sanctioning of military leader Qassem Suleimani, and his administration's involvement in negotiations followed by military actions against Iran. Officials note Trump's lack of remorse for the killing of Iran's supreme leader and an attempt on President Masoud Pezeshkian's life.

As the US midterm elections approach, speculation in Tehran focuses on Trump's potential political downfall. Iranian media closely monitor his declining approval ratings, attributing them to the unpopularity of ongoing conflicts and high oil prices. The shifting dynamics within the Democratic party are also under minute examination.

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This raises the very likely scenario of continued cycles of conflict between the US and Tehran over the strait.

This focus on the midterms became more apparent when Iran's deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, announced that a second phase of nuclear program negotiations would take two to four months to commence, even after agreeing on commercial shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. This timeline deviates significantly from the original plan for talks to begin within 30 days of a June memorandum of understanding. Gharibabadi outlined a series of preconditions for the second stage, including the lifting of sanctions, the end of the US blockade on Iranian ports, the unfreezing of assets, and new non-belligerence commitments – a process that could extend well beyond the November elections.

If Iran succeeds with this timetable, Trump would face the polls without any Iranian commitment on nuclear weapons and burdened by the economic costs of a protracted conflict. Jason Brodsky of United Against a Nuclear Iran warns of "continued cycles of conflict between the US and Tehran over the strait," predicting no "true quiet before the midterm elections" as Tehran "will continue to play games."

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There won’t be any true quiet before the midterm elections – Tehran has no interest in giving this to the Trump administration. It will continue to play games.