Iran is betting that regional escalation will improve its deal with Trump - opinion

Iran's recent missile barrages against Israel should be viewed as a strategic maneuver to gain leverage in negotiations with Washington, rather than mere retaliation. The regime aims to signal that any agreement ignoring Iranian interests will result in regional instability, encompassing Israel, Lebanon, the Houthis, and vital shipping lanes.

While aware of the risks of a full-scale regional war, Iran's leaders fear an agreement that would compel them to shift from "permanent confrontation" to "national rehabilitation." A country facing economic hardship, aging infrastructure, and public exhaustion would be forced to address internal priorities and accountability. Iran has cultivated a state that thrives on resistance, possessing far less experience in managing recovery.

This strategy allows Tehran to pursue the benefits of a deal, including financial relief, sanctions removal, and quiet for Hezbollah, while retaining its core strategic assets. These include nuclear capabilities, missile programs, and regional militias, which are viewed as the regime's insurance policy. The missile firings are designed to set a price for de-escalation and for any potential agreement.

Iran understands that President Donald Trump desires to avoid wider conflict and return to negotiations. Each missile launch serves as a message: maintaining quiet comes at a cost. This approach represents a dangerous gamble, as the path of escalation is difficult to control. Iran attempts to manage a measured escalation, but history shows such attempts can quickly spiral out of control, potentially forcing actions unintended by the original planners.