Iran-linked vessels transit Hormuz as US blockade takes effect

The Strait of Hormuz saw an increase in vessel traffic linked to Iranian trade on Tuesday, just before a U.S. naval blockade took effect. Nine out of 11 ships passing through the strategic waterway on Tuesday sailed via the Iranian route, according to ship-tracking data.

This surge preceded U.S. President Donald Trump's reimposition of a naval blockade on all Iranian ports. The U.S. also threatened further action against infrastructure if Tehran does not resume negotiations, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has sharply slowed. This slowdown is attributed to intensified strikes between the U.S. and Iran, which began in February. The attacks have led to crew members being killed, missing, or injured, and have caused Middle East spot crude prices to strengthen due to tight supplies.

Goldman Sachs noted that even after geopolitical de-escalation, the recovery of Gulf flow could be slow. The firm pointed to a significant drop in traffic through Omani and international routes following recent tanker attacks, indicating that shippers remain risk-averse when using the non-Iranian Hormuz lane.

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The next phase of Gulf flow recovery could be slower than the initial phase even after geopolitical de-escalation.