Iran May Pursue Nuclear Weapons for Survival, Expert Says

Professor Eyal Zisser, a Middle East expert from Tel Aviv University, argues that Iran now views nuclear weapons as essential for its regime's survival, particularly after facing repeated strikes from Israel and the United States. He suggests that Washington's eagerness for a new nuclear deal might inadvertently reinforce Tehran's strategy.

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If Iran wants to survive, it needs to develop a nuclear weapon.

Zisser pointed to a historical fatwa by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which prohibited the production of atomic bombs. He noted that while an internal debate existed, and some believed the fatwa was a facade, the ruling was officially in place. With Khamenei's passing, his rulings are no longer binding, and his successor, described as more extreme and influenced by the Revolutionary Guards, may lead to a shift in policy. Zisser assumes that this internal debate, now potentially out in the open, signals a move towards official policy rather than a religiously prohibited endeavor.

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There was a fatwa by the Supreme Leader, [Ali] Khamenei, according to which it was forbidden to produce an atomic bomb. In the previous decade there was an internal debate over this issue, and they argued that the Supreme Leader should change the religious ruling.

The expert highlighted the perceived benefits of nuclear armament by drawing parallels with other leaders. He stated that leaders who abandoned nuclear ambitions, such as Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein, ultimately lacked the deterrent necessary to prevent their downfall. In contrast, North Korea's Kim Jong Un, possessing a nuclear bomb, is seen as immune. Zisser concludes that Iran's experience of being attacked reinforces the logical conclusion that nuclear weapons are necessary for survival, and he expects the new Supreme Leader's pronouncements to align with this.

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The message of the Iranian regime from what it went through and what happened over the past year, two times when it was attacked by Israel and the United States, is a clear message: if Iran wants to survive, it needs a nuclear weapon.

Regarding potential negotiations with the United States, Zisser observed a significant gap in approaches. He described one side as signaling indifference and a sense of victory, while the American side exhibits an "eagerness that is simply impossible to describe" to reach an agreement. Zisser believes an agreement would ultimately serve Iran's interests, allowing them to proceed without explicit pursuit of nuclear weapons.

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There is one side that signals indifference and a sense of victory. And there is the other side, the American side, that signals an eagerness that is simply impossible to describe in an international relationship, to reach an agreement at any price.