Iran proves it can still inflict damage despite waves of US attacks

Iran continues to demonstrate its capacity to inflict significant damage, even as the United States launches waves of attacks. The ongoing conflict, now in its sixth consecutive night, shows no signs of de-escalation, with diplomatic ties remaining distant and Iran possessing the capability to cause considerable harm despite the US military advantage.

Recent US attacks, employing missiles from jets, drones, and warships, targeted Iranian ports and southern regions. These strikes damaged infrastructure, including a tower at Chabahar and highways leading to the key Hormuz port of Bandar Abbas. In response, Iran retaliated against US allies, striking targets in Qatar, Bahrain, and notably Kuwait. A power and desalination plant in Kuwait was hit, causing a fire and an undetermined amount of damage. Desalination is vital for water supply in the arid Gulf, meeting an estimated 90% of Kuwait's needs.

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weapons are down 91%

These events contradict claims by the US and Israel that their extensive spring bombing campaign had decimated Iran's military. Leaked US intelligence assessments from May indicated that Iran had regained access to a significant portion of its missile launch sites and stockpile. The precision of Iranian attacks, including strikes on two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz that killed one sailor and wounded eight, underscores Iran's persistent threat. A third tanker was struck further east, demonstrating the reach of Iranian air power against vessels that are difficult to defend without naval escort.

The consequences of these escalating attacks are evident. The US reimposed a blockade in the Gulf of Oman, and daily transits through Hormuz dropped significantly. Brent crude oil prices rose sharply, illustrating Iran's ability to disrupt energy markets. Michael Carpenter, a former Biden administration official, noted that while escalation costs are lower, the White House lacks a clear strategy for resolution, leaving a frustrated US exploring options to influence Iran's behavior.

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Now that the plaster has been ripped off, the costs for escalation for both sides are so much lower than before February 28. But the White House has “no clear or well thought-through strategy for how to get out of this”.