Iran's Generals Refuse to Yield Control of Hormuz, Prompting Urgent Development of Alternative Routes

The era beyond the Strait of Hormuz is dawning as Iranian generals resist relinquishing control of the vital waterway, prompting a high-pressure build-up of alternative transport routes in the region. A new Goldman Sachs study suggests that by the end of 2028, up to 60 percent of crude oil could be transported via pipelines.

The conflict between Iran and the United States has reignited, moving beyond initial skirmishes to a renewed state of hostilities. Following US airstrikes on military and infrastructure targets, Iran's Revolutionary Guards have once again blocked the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian news agency Tasnim reported the guards' declaration: "As long as the US bombs us, we will not allow the transport of crude oil and liquefied gas."

For decades, the Strait of Hormuz has dictated the pulse of the global economy, with a quarter of all global crude oil shipments passing through it before the current conflict. Liquefied gas, fertilizers, helium, and numerous other essential raw materials and goods also traverse this critical chokepoint. While Iran's former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had often threatened to close the strait, he historically favored "strategic patience" and never acted on the threat.

However, Khamenei's death in a US and Israeli attack last February shifted power to the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards. These generals, now in control, were the first to blockade the strait and are unwilling to cede their "nuclear weapon," as they view Hormuz. They perceive the US demand for free passage as a price for ending the war, with Iran expected to sell oil without sanctions and access frozen foreign accounts. Yet, Tehran lacks trust in these American promises, leading the powerful generals to prioritize retaining control of Hormuz at all costs. Attacks on tankers not under Tehran's control have resumed, reigniting the conflict.

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As long as the US bombs us, we will not allow the transport of crude oil and liquefied gas.