Iran's Hormuz Closure Illegal, Expert Warns; Traffic Plummets

Iran has asserted its control over the Strait of Hormuz, announcing its closure on Sunday and publishing terms for passage, signaling its intent to leverage the vital waterway. This move comes amid heightened tensions and follows alleged Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

While the U.S. Central Command maintained that the strait remained open, data from analytics firm Kpler revealed a sharp drop in traffic following Iran's announcement. U.S. officials reported 55 merchant ships transited the strait on Saturday, moving over 17 million barrels of oil. However, Israeli maritime company Windward AI noted only 32 ships transited the previous day, with a significant portion of crude oil exports destined for China.

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Throughout the conflict, sanctioned tonnage in this theater operated almost entirely dark. This posture shift, loading in the open, is consistent with a fleet that no longer judges concealment necessary following the US-Iran MoU signed 17 June.

The Islamic Republic's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) continues to assert dominion over Hormuz, requiring ships to seek permission and disclose cargo details. The PGSA's "Passage rules and regulations" also state the right to enforce penalties for non-compliance and potentially introduce future insurance fees. Professor Michael Clarke, a British defense analyst, stated that Iran's plans are illegal under international law, citing the doctrine of transit passage guaranteed by the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which ensures unimpeded transport even during conflict.

Iran's tactics have become bolder, with sanctioned vessels operating more openly. The Israeli company Windward AI suggested this shift is linked to a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed on June 17, indicating a reduced need for concealment. The PGSA's assertion of authority, including demands for tolls and fees, challenges established international maritime law.

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The right to keep the Strait of Hormuz open is guaranteed by the doctrine of transit passage under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and customary international law, and asserts that transport across the waterway be unimpeded even during times of conflict.