Iran's Revolutionary Guard Signals Potential Shift to Offensive War

A senior official within Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has signaled a potential escalation in military posture, warning that Iran may transition from defensive to offensive operations. Yadollah Javani, the IRGC’s deputy for political affairs, stated that while Iran's actions have been defensive due to adversaries initiating conflict, future operations could become offensive. He indicated that new approaches would be adopted following recent directives, promising "strategic surprises" for Iran's adversaries.

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Iran’s military actions had so far been defensive because its adversaries had started the war, but could become offensive in the future.

This warning coincides with reports that Tehran and its allied armed groups in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon are developing plans to expand the conflict. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the broader region would escalate if diplomacy with Washington fails. This official indicated Iran's decision to move to a "fully offensive" stance, suggesting the U.S. has a few weeks to implement a memorandum of understanding, as reliance on mediators is no longer seen as realistic.

Javani reiterated that resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz hinges on Washington fulfilling its commitments under the Islamabad memorandum. He emphasized that the waterway would not revert to its pre-war status. Discussions with Oman regarding a shipping corridor are focused on the period after hostilities definitively cease. Recent military appointments by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei are described as a restructuring to adapt Iran's defense doctrine to current conditions.

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Tehran would escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region if diplomacy with Washington failed.

Further indications of a strategic shift come from intercepted communications and intelligence cited by The Wall Street Journal. These suggest the IRGC has been collaborating with allies to expand the battlefield. Reports indicate that Tehran used a recent lull to reorganize its military and security apparatus, rebuild capabilities, and prepare for a broader confrontation. This preparation includes granting the IRGC greater influence over the regular military, restructuring command chains, enhancing counterintelligence, and boosting missile and drone production.

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Iran had decided to shift from a defensive posture to a “fully offensive” one and had given the United States “a few weeks” to fully implement the memorandum of understanding.