Iran's Supreme Leader is a 'scarecrow' figurehead, analysis claims
Translated from English, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.
At a glance
- Iran appears to have transitioned to military and security fascism, with the Revolutionary Guard in control and weakening civilian institutions.
- The successor to the former Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has not appeared publicly for five months, leading to speculation he is a 'scarecrow' figurehead.
- The Revolutionary Guard's actions, including reneging on agreements and provoking neighbors, are expected to backfire.
Iran's leadership is characterized by secrecy, particularly regarding the "third Supreme Leader," Mojtaba Khamenei, who has remained out of public view for five months since his father's assassination. This prolonged absence, even from his father's funeral, fuels speculation that he is merely a "scarecrow" figurehead, with statements issued in his name while the Revolutionary Guard exerts control.
If we consider that Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf served as an officer and head of the Khatam Al-Anbiya Construction headquarters, it indicates that civilian rule no longer exists.
The article suggests Iran has shifted from "religious fascism to military and security fascism." Evidence cited includes the Revolutionary Guard's dominance, which appears to be weakening civilian institutions like the presidency, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Parliament. The past role of Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as an officer in the Revolutionary Guard's construction headquarters is highlighted as an indicator of the erosion of civilian rule.
The absence of the Iranian Supreme Leader from important political and military events while his country is at war means that he is merely a scarecrow used only when needed.
This elusive leadership, particularly the Supreme Leader's absence during wartime, allows the Revolutionary Guard to operate with impunity. The article claims Tehran reneged on a Memorandum of Understanding with the United States and continues to "blackmail" neighboring countries. These actions, driven by the Revolutionary Guard's pursuit of its own financial and economic interests, are predicted to backfire.
Consequently, Tehran reneged on the Memorandum of Understanding signed with the United States, provoking the world through the Strait of Hormuz.
Historically, Iranian leaders like Khomeini and Ali Khamenei were visible figures, even in difficult times. The current successor's reluctance to appear publicly is attributed by some Iranian officials to fears of being targeted. However, leaked information suggests he may have been injured and disfigured in the attack that killed his father, further solidifying the "scarecrow" hypothesis. The internal situation in Iran is described as volatile, with public anger simmering beneath the surface, a situation the regime reportedly exploits to protect its economic empire.
It has been almost five months since the assassination of the previous Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, yet his successor remains out of the public eye.
Originally published by Arab Times in English. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.