Iran sees strategic advantage as US seeks to avoid wider war, ex-Israeli official says

Iran perceives itself as strategically positioned, believing the United States is keen to avoid escalating into a broader conflict, according to former senior Israeli security official Avner Vilan.

Vilan told 103FM that Iran feels a "sense of victory" because it controls the Strait of Hormuz and has faced no significant repercussions. He stated that Tehran's strategy is proving effective.

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The Iranians have a sense of victory. They control the Strait of Hormuz, and nobody has done anything to them. Their strategy is working.

According to Vilan, Iran understands that U.S. President Donald Trump is hesitant to engage in another major war, which emboldens Tehran to take calculated risks. "They understand that Trump does not want to get entangled in another large-scale war, so they are playing this game of chicken and are prepared to take risks," Vilan said.

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They understand that Trump does not want to get entangled in another large-scale war, so they are playing this game of chicken and are prepared to take risks.

He elaborated that Iran's strategic thinking involves not only absorbing potential damage but also ensuring the regime's survival. Even if infrastructure is lost and the economy suffers, Iran believes it can still project power, albeit on a reduced scale, and continue to threaten regional stability and civilian infrastructure.

Vilan concluded that the ultimate strategic outcome depends on which side faces greater pressure to reach an agreement, suggesting that even after military action, U.S. pressure for a settlement might be higher.

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From Iran's perspective, the challenge is not only absorbing the damage inflicted by the other side, but also surviving the residual damage. The Iranians are preparing themselves for a situation in which, even if they lose infrastructure and their economy is badly damaged, the regime itself survives.