Iran signals shift to offensive operations in war with US

Six months into its war with the United States, Iran's military is signaling a strategic pivot from retaliation to offense, a move analysts believe reflects Tehran's confidence in its leverage to break the ongoing stalemate.

Since the war began on February 28 with US-Israeli strikes, Iran has largely framed its attacks on the US, Israel, and Gulf countries as revenge. However, Iranian officials are now openly discussing a greater priority for offensive operations, while maintaining control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key pressure point against Washington that has disrupted global energy flows and driven up prices.

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strengthening maximum deterrence and preparing to conduct large-scale offensive operations against the enemy

This shift was outlined by Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, earlier this month, who called for "strengthening maximum deterrence and preparing to conduct large-scale offensive operations against the enemy." A deputy commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards recently indicated that Tehran is revising its military doctrine to give "offensive operations" strategic priority.

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offensive operations

Analyst Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy suggests this does not signify a move towards preventive war. Instead, Tehran appears to believe that "if confrontation becomes unavoidable, Iran should escalate earlier and more forcefully rather than wait for the United States or Israel to define the terms of the conflict." Ahmad Zeidabadi, a Tehran-based international relations expert, interprets the shift as a reflection of Iran's assessment of Washington's intentions.

"The Islamic Republic believes the United States has likely ruled out war and now seeks to perpetuate the status quo including the US naval blockade and the economic pressure," Zeidabadi told AFP. He added that Iranians may feel diplomacy is doomed to fail and that the US will not accept their terms, compelling them to resort to offensive action to force concessions and initiate new negotiations.

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if confrontation becomes unavoidable, Iran should escalate earlier and more forcefully rather than wait for the United States or Israel to define the terms of the conflict

Despite suffering heavy losses, including the deaths of senior leaders and significant material damage, Iran's political system remains intact. The war has spread regionally, involving clashes between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, and disruptions around Hormuz.

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The Islamic Republic believes the United States has likely ruled out war and now seeks to perpetuate the status quo including the US naval blockade and the economic pressure.