Iran TV Reports US Deal, Oil Prices Plunge Before Report Is Retracted

Iranian state television aired and then abruptly retracted a report detailing a supposed agreement between Washington and Tehran, a move that sent crude oil prices tumbling by nearly 5%. The broadcast, which outlined a plan for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, was removed from social media accounts without any official explanation, highlighting the market's sensitivity to diplomatic developments in the ongoing conflict.

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The content broadcast described an agreement not yet finalized but whose outlines would be as follows: if a memorandum of understanding were to be signed, Iran would commit to restoring navigation in the Strait of Hormuz to its pre-war levels within a month, while the United States would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports.

The initial report suggested that if a memorandum of understanding were signed, Iran would commit to restoring navigation in the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month. In return, the United States would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports. This news immediately impacted global oil markets, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, falling to $95 a barrel after days of erratic fluctuations driven by conflicting negotiation signals.

Further details, previously reported by the Financial Times, indicate the proposed agreement includes a 60-day extension of the fragile ceasefire that began on April 8. During this period, the Strait of Hormuz would be progressively reopened as Iran clears its waters of mines. Concurrently, the US and Iran would engage in negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program. A key point of contention involves the fate of 440 kg of highly enriched uranium accumulated by Tehran, with discussions focusing on its dilution or transfer to the United States.

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This uranium must 'either be immediately handed over to the United States, or, preferably, destroyed on site or in an acceptable location, under the supervision of the Atomic Energy Commission or its equivalent.'

Former President Trump has repeatedly insisted that Iran must hand over its "nuclear dust." The report suggests that in exchange for Iran's compliance, Washington would progressively ease sanctions and unfreeze Iranian assets held abroad, tied to progress toward a final agreement. However, the financial aspect, particularly the release of $24 billion in blocked Iranian assets, remains a significant sticking point, with Tehran demanding half of this sum be unfrozen in the initial phase.

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The release of Iranian assets abroad frozen abroad is the last 'serious point of friction.'